Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada Hiring for Indo-Pacific Crude Oil Demand Research Consultancy | Deadline 2 May 2026

The Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada (Singapore) Limited is inviting qualified consultants to submit proposals for a high-level, policy-oriented research project examining the long-term demand outlook for Canadian crude oil in the Indo-Pacific region. This remote consultancy will contribute to strategic understanding of energy markets, infrastructure development, and geopolitical risk shaping Canada’s future oil exports.

📧 Contact: singapore@asiapacific.ca
📅 Submission deadline: 2 May 2026
📁 Submission format: Single merged file (as specified in the RFP)

Overview of the Assignment

This consultancy focuses on producing an original research report that provides 10–15 year demand forecast scenarios for Canadian crude oil exports to Asia. The study will analyze market dynamics, infrastructure readiness, refinery compatibility, and geopolitical risks affecting trade flows between Canada and Indo-Pacific economies.

The research will be used by policymakers, industry stakeholders, and government institutions to guide energy strategy and investment decisions.

Background Context

The launch of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline in May 2024 significantly increased Canada’s export capacity to the Pacific, enabling crude oil shipments to Indo-Pacific markets at a larger scale. Since then, exports have grown rapidly, reflecting increasing commercial engagement with Asian buyers.

At the same time, Canada and Alberta have committed to developing additional pipeline infrastructure aimed at increasing export capacity further. However, long-term demand sustainability remains uncertain due to energy transition trends, evolving refinery systems in Asia, and global supply competition.

This consultancy aims to fill a critical gap in policy and market analysis by offering independent, data-driven forecasting and strategic insights.

Key Objectives of the Research

The selected consultant will deliver a comprehensive analysis addressing multiple dimensions of the Canadian crude oil export outlook.

Core objectives include:

• Assessing long-term demand for Canadian heavy sour crude in Indo-Pacific markets
• Focusing primarily on China, with secondary analysis of India, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia
• Evaluating refinery compatibility, including coking capacity and petrochemical demand shifts
• Analyzing current and proposed export infrastructure and logistical constraints
• Reviewing competitive crude supply sources such as Middle Eastern, Russian, and Venezuelan oil
• Examining geopolitical risks and alternative supply chain scenarios
• Developing scenario-based forecasts across at least three future market pathways
• Incorporating expert interviews from industry, academia, and policy sectors

Scope of Work

The assignment requires both quantitative modeling and qualitative policy analysis. The consultant will be expected to integrate energy market data with geopolitical and infrastructure assessments.

Expected analytical components include:

• Demand forecasting models for 10–15 year horizon scenarios
• Comparative analysis of crude oil competitiveness across global suppliers
• Assessment of refinery configurations and technical crude suitability
• Infrastructure mapping for export routes and capacity constraints
• Risk analysis including geopolitical disruptions and trade vulnerabilities
• Policy implications for Canadian federal and provincial stakeholders

Key Deliverables

The final output will be a policy-grade research report suitable for government and industry use.

Deliverables include:

• Inception plan outlining methodology and analytical framework
• Draft research report with preliminary findings and scenario models
• Final comprehensive report with refined analysis and recommendations
• Data-backed demand projections under multiple scenarios
• Summary of expert interview insights and quotations
• Policy recommendations for government and private sector stakeholders

Candidate Profile

The assignment is intended for highly experienced consultants or research institutions with expertise in energy markets, policy analysis, or geopolitical strategy.

Required qualifications include:

• Strong background in energy economics, international trade, or policy research
• Experience conducting long-term market forecasting or scenario analysis
• Familiarity with oil and gas supply chains, especially heavy crude markets
• Ability to integrate geopolitical risk into economic modeling
• Experience producing policy-grade research for governments or industry
• Strong qualitative and quantitative analytical skills

Preferred Experience

• Prior work on Indo-Pacific energy markets or Asian refinery systems
• Experience with Canadian energy sector or North American export infrastructure
• Background in geopolitical risk analysis or strategic energy security studies
• Experience conducting expert interviews and synthesizing qualitative insights

Submission Process

Interested consultants must submit their proposal in accordance with the instructions provided in the full RFP document.

Submission requirements:

• One merged file containing the full proposal
• Submission deadline: 2 May 2026
• Email inquiries directed to: singapore@asiapacific.ca
• Attention: Barrett Bingley, Asia Regional Director

Strategic Importance of the Project

This research is designed to inform long-term energy strategy decisions at a time of significant global transition. As Asia’s energy demand evolves and global supply chains shift, understanding the future role of Canadian crude oil in Indo-Pacific markets is critical for both economic planning and geopolitical positioning.

The findings will help policymakers and industry leaders evaluate infrastructure investments, trade strategies, and risk exposure in an increasingly complex global energy environment.

Final Note

This consultancy represents a high-impact research opportunity at the intersection of energy economics, international policy, and global trade strategy. The selected consultant will contribute to shaping a clearer understanding of Canada’s long-term role in Asian energy markets and the strategic implications of evolving global oil demand.

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